NYT: Shoppers win 'game of chicken' with stores

Half off at the entire store at Ann Taylor. Sixty percent at Gap. Forty percent off almost everything at Abercrombie & Fitch.

Aggressive last-minute deals in the days before Christmas are good for procrastinators, but they could be an alarm bell for the retail industry.

While scattered markdowns are standard every year, discounts across entire stores ? which analysts say are more widespread than last year ? suggest merchants are stuck with too much merchandise.

?It?s really a game of chicken,? said David Bassuk, managing director and head of the retail practice at the consultant firm AlixPartners.

Many retailers entered the season ?with pretty optimistic plans? that shoppers would rush into stores and pay full price, Mr. Bassuk said. But that did not pan out, and the final days before Christmas have retailers being ?much more aggressive in terms of promotions being offered,? he said.

Shoppers are filling their holiday lists against the backdrop of an uncertain year, with stubbornly high unemployment, increased food prices, volatile gas prices and unpredictability for stocks and Europe?s debt crisis. The government on Thursday said that third-quarter economic growth had not been as brisk as it previously estimated, because of a drop in consumer spending on services like health care.

Story: Consumer spending tepid in November

Toys ?R? Us announced on Thursday new deals on dozens of items for Friday and Saturday, including ?buy one, get one half off? on popular toys like Legos. A sampling of other promotions: Up to 70 percent off toys at Amazon; up to 50 percent off gifts at Restoration Hardware; 40 percent off almost everything at American Eagle Outfitters, Talbots, Limited and Wet Seal; and 30 percent off everything at J. Crew.

?There?s been kind of a waiting game with retailers,? Gerald L. Storch, the chief executive of Toys ?R? Us, told CNBC last week. ?And it looks like the consumer wins.?

Paul Lejuez, an analyst at Nomura Equity Research, surveyed mall deals over the weekend and said he was concerned. ?It looks like 40 percent is the new level you have to be at, 40 percent off, to drive traffic. Those that weren?t at that level weren?t getting their fair share,? he said.

Going into the holiday season, inventories had grown more than three times as fast as sales at several retailers, including American Eagle Outfitters, A?ropostale, Gap Inc., Urban Outfitters, Chico?s and Talbots. ?If inventory is growing ahead of sales growth, there is a need to be more promotional to move the goods,? Mr. Lejuez said.

Although sales over Thanksgiving weekend were surprisingly strong, Mr. Lejuez said they seemed to have cut into shopping that more typically would occur in December. Sales were sluggish the first two weeks after Thanksgiving, though they improved in the third week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.

In e-mail inboxes, the promotional cadence is rapid. Retailers sent about 5.6 e-mails each last week on average, according to the e-mail marketer Responsys. That was a 26 percent increase over the same week last year, and matched the record high hit during the week of Cyber Monday this year.

Stores including Macy?s and Toys ?R? Us are offering 24-hour shopping in the days before Christmas, and many stores moved ?Super Saturday,? a promotion that falls on the final Saturday before Christmas, back a week hoping to spur sales.

The deals are a boon for people who have put off shopping.

?Last-minute Christmas shopping,? posted a Twitter user named Samra Tekeste. ?Literally everything is on sale, LOL. Knew my procrastination would come in handy some day.? Another Twitter user with the handle BossNugget suggested that the King of Prussia mall near Philadelphia hang up a sign saying ?It?s Almost Christmas, and Everything Is on Sale.?

The big discounts mean that retailers are willing to sacrifice profits for revenue.

?More and more each year, sales become less of the issue, and it?s more about what retailers have to do to get those,? Mr. Lejuez said. ?There?s a little more pressure on that out-the-door price than we would have thought, and, I think, what the market would have anticipated.?

And, after Christmas, the value of most merchandise slides.

?The inventory is worth so much less in two weeks,? said the chief executive of a retailer, who asked not to be named because he did not want to reveal his store?s strategy. ?With that kind of inventory, you?ve got to get rid of it. Whatever the margin is today, it?s that much lower next week and the week after when traffic stops.?

This story originally appeared in the New York Times on Dec. 23 under the headline "Retailers Are Slashing Prices Ahead of Holiday."

Copyright ? 2011 The New York Times

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45775717/ns/business-us_business/

weather colorado springs weather colorado springs chaz bono tonight show tonight show unthink julianne hough